Customers & Markets

The Cold Start Problem

How to Start and Scale Network Effects

Andrew Chen · 2021 · Harper Business

How networked products get their first users when an empty network is worthless, and how they keep growing afterward.

The big idea

What the book argues

Products that connect people, such as marketplaces, messaging apps, and social platforms, face a starting problem: nobody wants to join a network that has no one on it. Chen, drawing on his work at Uber and as an investor, lays out a five-stage path from that cold start to a durable moat. The key move is to begin with the smallest network that can sustain itself, win the side of the network that is hardest to attract, and then repeat that pattern market by market.

5
stages from cold start to moat

Key takeaways

7 ideas worth keeping

1

Start with the smallest possible atomic network

An atomic network is the smallest group of users that makes the product valuable on its own and can keep it alive. For a workplace chat tool, that may be one team. For ride-sharing, enough drivers and riders in a single city. Build that first, then copy the pattern, rather than launching everywhere thinly.

2

Win the hard side of the network first

Most networks have a side that is harder to attract and does most of the work: drivers, hosts, sellers, or content creators. If they show up and stay, the easier side usually follows. Founders should invest disproportionate time and money in recruiting and keeping this group.

Illustration: Airbnb's founders went to New York and arranged professional photography for hosts' listings, a hands-on effort aimed squarely at supply.
3

Tipping points happen locally, one market at a time

A network does not need to be big everywhere to work. It needs density in one place, community, or campus. Once one network tips, the next ones become easier because of the reputation and playbook from the first. Choosing where to start is a strategic decision.

Illustration: Facebook launched college by college, starting with Harvard, before opening more widely.
4

Escape velocity comes from three reinforcing effects

Chen describes growth at scale as the combination of three effects: an acquisition effect, where users bring in other users; an engagement effect, where more users make the product more useful and sticky; and an economic effect, where scale improves monetization and lowers costs. Strengthening all three keeps growth compounding.

5

Expect growth to hit a ceiling eventually

Growth eventually slows. Channels saturate, early users' enthusiasm fades, spam and bad actors appear, and new users may not resemble the first ones. Chen treats this as a normal stage and argues that teams must keep finding new networks and markets, each of which can feel like a fresh cold start.

6

Use the network as a moat

A strong network makes the product harder to displace, because rivals face their own cold start while you already have density. Competition between networked products often happens market by market, and the side with the stronger local network usually wins those fights. Defending existing networks matters as much as opening new ones.

7

Seed the early network with creative tactics

Early networks often need help. Tactics include launching with an invite-only group, offering a useful single-player tool that later becomes a network, manually doing work behind the scenes, or subsidizing one side until the network can stand on its own. These are expensive, so tie them to a clear tipping-point goal.

Illustration: Restaurant-booking software that is useful to restaurants on its own, before diners arrive, is a common example of 'come for the tool, stay for the network'.

The framework

The network effects lifecycle

01

Cold start

Build the first atomic network when the product has no users and little value.

02

Tipping point

Reach enough density that new networks form more easily, one market at a time.

03

Escape velocity

Strengthen acquisition, engagement, and economic effects to sustain growth.

04

Hitting the ceiling

Address saturation, fading novelty, and bad actors as growth slows.

05

The moat

Use network strength to defend against competitors facing their own cold start.

Apply it this week

Three moves to make now

  1. Define your atomic network in one sentence: the smallest group that would get real value from your product with nobody else on it.
  2. Identify the hard side of your network and list three hands-on ways to recruit and keep its first members.
  3. Pick one location, community, or customer cluster to reach density in before expanding.

Read next

Pairs well with

This page is an original summary and commentary prepared by XRAYCLOUD.AI with AI assistance. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the author or publisher, and it is no substitute for the book — read it for the full argument.